Hyderabad, Oct 16 (Hydnow): A potential cyclonic disturbance is brewing in the Arabian Sea, which could intensify into the first post-monsoon cyclone of the season, according to leading private weather agency Skymet Weather.
A low-pressure area is expected to form over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Monday night, which is likely to develop into a cyclonic circulation within 72 hours. However, due to its extremely low latitudinal position and unfavorable atmospheric conditions, there is no indication of rapid storm wind intensification.
The development of this cyclonic disturbance is being attributed to a confluence of factors, including a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a moderately favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.
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The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate pattern that is characterized by a difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD, as is currently the case, is associated with increased rainfall over India and eastern Africa and decreased rainfall over Indonesia and Australia.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a low-frequency atmospheric disturbance that travels eastward across the tropics. The MJO can influence weather patterns around the globe, and a favorable MJO phase can enhance the development of cyclones.
The cyclonic disturbance is expected to track towards the extreme south-central areas of the Arabian Sea over the next few days. It is important to note that this system is still in its early stages of development, and it is too early to say with certainty whether it will intensify into a full-fledged cyclone.
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However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is monitoring the system closely and will issue regular updates. Fishermen and coastal residents are advised to exercise caution and stay informed about the latest weather developments. (Hydnow)
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