When India went into lockdown on the midnight of March 23, the number of coronavirus cases in the country stood at less than 500 — 498 to be precise. Over the next 20 days, cases have risen more than 20-fold to hit 10,000 late on Monday. This rise during a period of unprecedented social distancing in the country may appear alarming, there’s also some good news hidden in the statistics.
India is the 22nd country to register 10,000 Covid-19 (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/Covid-19) cases. Our total cases per million people remain among the lowest in the world at around seven, even though India’s record of testing is poor (137/million people). For perspective, the US has nearly 1,700 cases per million and Spain more than 3,500. A ramped up testing regime in India may possibly raise the number of cases. But since the cases per million are so low, even a significant rise will not radically change the overall scenario.
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The other cause for cheer, albeit slight, is the doubling rate of cases — that is, the time taken for cases to double, a widely used statistical tool to gauge the spread of any infection. Even as the spike caused by infections linked to the Tablighi Jamaat congregations in Delhi’s Nizamuddin last month continues, there has been a marginal slowing of the doubling rate. The current rate of doubling is a little over six days — the country hit 5,000 cases on April 7 — up from close to 4 in the first week of this month. But the threats too are clear. However the sharp rise in new cases on Monday, when over 1,200 were reported, could be pointing to a new phase of the coronavirus outbreak.
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In the past few days, the Covid crisis has deepened in several states of India.
In Maharashtra, the number of cases has doubled in less than five days (since April 8). The state’s death toll has risen by 122% in these five days, increasing alarmingly from 72 to 160. Within the state, cases and death toll in Mumbai remain disproportionately high.
Delhi too saw an explosion of new cases on Monday, mostly linked to the Jamaat gatherings, while Tamil Nadu continues to register high numbers. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh too have seen a surge in cases in recent days.
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The challenge in phase II of India’s lockdown exercise will clearly come from these states even as the danger of fresh clusters in other parts of the country remains.